What's This Tournament About?
Every day, billions of animals suffer in ways we can prevent, but only if resources are directed wisely. People working to reduce that suffering face hard questions with thin evidence: which interventions work, where the next dollar should go, and how the landscape will shift over the next few years.
The Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus asks forecasters to help answer these questions. Each question was crowdsourced from the animal advocacy community and vetted for decision-relevance, so a forecast could plausibly inform a real funding or strategy decision.
The tournament builds on Metaculus's earlier animal welfare and alternative protein forecasting work, and is run in partnership with Sentient Futures and The Unjournal. The Unjournal is helping connect the forecasts to decision-relevant research questions, and the prize pool was funded by the community via Manifund.
Key details
You do not need to be an animal advocate to take part. Whether you have spent years in the movement or you are a forecaster looking for fresh, decision-relevant questions, your predictions are welcome and useful.
- Participation is free.
- You can forecast one question, several questions, or the full set.
- Your forecasts can be updated as evidence changes.
Go straight to the tournament:
Join the Tournament on MetaculusMetaculus has the full question list, participation flow, rules, scoring, and leaderboard details.
Questions span farmed animal welfare commitments, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, and the ways advanced AI may come to shape the lives of animals.
These are examples from the Metaculus tournament page. The full set also includes questions on in-ovo sexing, octopus farming, cultivated meat approvals, meat production, screwworm cases, animal-welfare model benchmarks, and related policy outcomes.
For Forecasters
This is a low-friction way to work on concrete, decision-relevant questions. You can enter a single forecast, focus on the subset you know best, and revise your predictions as new evidence arrives.
Who Will Use These Forecasts?
Funders
More informed allocation across interventions
Researchers
Clarity on which uncertainties matter most
Organizations
Data to guide strategic direction
How You Can Help
Follow and forecast
Follow the tournament, make predictions, and update them as evidence changes.
Open MetaculusShare with forecasters
Send the tournament to people who enjoy calibrated predictions, policy forecasting, or animal-welfare research.
See Sample QuestionsLearn More
Read the full background on the EA Forum, including example questions and the theory of change.
Read the AnnouncementHow The Unjournal Is Involved
The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions project tackles critical uncertainties in effective altruism research. We are coordinating with Metaculus on this tournament to:
- Help shape decision-relevant questions, drawing on our work on plant-based product substitution and cultured meat viability
- Connect tournament forecasts with rigorous research evaluation
- Integrate insights into our Metaculus community forecasts
Our goal: synthesize forecasting data with academic evidence to create actionable "decision packages" for funders and advocates.
FAQ
Do I need to be an expert?
No. Topic experts and general forecasters both add value, especially when they make their uncertainty explicit.
Is it free?
Yes. Participation is free, and the tournament has a $3,400 prize pool.
Do I need to forecast every question?
No. You can forecast any subset of questions.
What is Metaculus?
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform where people make and update probabilistic predictions on important questions.
How are prizes awarded?
Metaculus hosts the rules, scoring, leaderboard, and prize details on the tournament page.
Can bots participate?
Metaculus handles the tournament rules. Bot accounts may participate under Metaculus rules, but each entrant can enter only once.
Support the Prize Pool
The ad goal is tournament participation, but additional support can help expand this line of decision-relevant forecasting.
Donate on Manifund Or donate via The Unjournal, leaving a comment "AW Tournament"; all funds will be passed directly.Hero image: "Chicken free range 1" by AnemoneProjectors, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0.