Predict the Future of Animal Welfare

What's This Tournament About?

Forecasting tournaments bring together diverse predictors — researchers, analysts, and curious thinkers — to estimate the probability of future events. This will be Metaculus' first tournament focused entirely on animal welfare.

Questions will cover topics like:

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Plant-based market share

Will plant-based meat alternatives reach 10% of US meat sales by 2030?

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Corporate commitments

What percentage of companies will fulfill their cage-free egg pledges?

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Cultivated meat regulation

Will cultivated meat be approved for sale in the EU by 2027?

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Consumption trends

Will per-capita meat consumption decline in any G7 country by 2028?

These are illustrative examples. Final tournament questions are being finalized with Metaculus.

      Why does this matter? Better predictions lead to better prioritization, which leads to better outcomes for animals. Forecasting tournaments help surface what the community actually believes — and where the biggest uncertainties lie.
    

Who Will Use These Forecasts?

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Funders

More informed allocation across interventions

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Researchers

Clarity on which uncertainties matter most

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Organizations

Data to guide strategic direction

How You Can Help

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Fund the Prize Pool

The tournament needs a prize pool to incentivize quality forecasting. Even small donations help us reach our $15,000 goal.

Donate on Manifund
Or donate via The Unjournal, leaving a comment 'AW Tournament'; all funds will be passed directly.

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Get Notified

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Learn More

Read the full background on the EA Forum, including example questions and the theory of change.

Read the Announcement

How The Unjournal Is Involved

The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions project tackles critical uncertainties in effective altruism research. We're collaborating with this tournament to:

Help shape decision-relevant questions, drawing on our work on plant-based product substitution and cultured meat viability
Connect tournament forecasts with rigorous research evaluation
Integrate insights into our Metaculus community forecasts

Our goal: synthesize forecasting data with academic evidence to create actionable "decision packages" for funders and advocates.