The Unjournal
The Unjournal

Pivotal Questions

Turning decision bottlenecks into answerable questions, expert workshops, evaluations, and forecasts.

What Are Pivotal Questions?

A pivotal question is an empirical uncertainty that could change what an organization funds, recommends, or studies. Instead of starting with a paper and asking whether it is good research, we start with the decision and ask what evidence would actually matter.

Which unanswered, quantifiable questions matter most to organizations' policy or funding choices?

Once a question is clear enough to answer, we connect it to existing research, commission expert evaluations where useful, and summarize the evidence in a form decision-makers can use. Sometimes the output is an evaluation. Sometimes it is a workshop, a forecast, a public database entry, or a sharper statement of what still is not known.

The goal: Put limited research and evaluation effort where it is most likely to change real choices in global health, animal welfare, wellbeing measurement, and related areas.

Our Approach

In practice, this means doing a few plain but important things carefully:

Demand-Driven

We ask funders, practitioners, and researchers which uncertainties are blocking a decision or making a recommendation fragile.

Decision-Relevant

Each question is tied to a practical choice. If a different answer would not change behavior, we keep refining.

Quantifiable

We turn broad concerns into measurable claims, probability judgments, or quantities that can be compared with evidence.

Evidence-Linked

We connect questions to papers, forecasts, workshops, evaluations, and public discussion so the reasoning is visible.

Workshops in Practice

Our workshops are a practical way to move from a vague uncertainty to a more useful research question. We bring together people who know the evidence, people who use the evidence, and people who can challenge the framing. The format is deliberately modest: focused online sessions, background notes, belief elicitation, and public writeups where appropriate.

Workshop hub: See current and recent sessions at Pivotal Questions Workshops.

Wellbeing Measurement

Held March 16, 2026 · online workshop and asynchronous follow-up

This workshop looked at whether WELLBY-based cost-effectiveness estimates are reliable enough for funding decisions, and how funders should compare WELLBYs with DALYs or QALYs. The materials now include a workshop summary, readings, belief responses, and notes on the StrongMinds vs AMF focal case.

WELLBY reliability DALY-WELLBY conversion Global health cost-effectiveness

Cultivated Meat

Held May 8, 2026 · online workshop with public and off-record segments

This workshop focused on cultivated meat's cost trajectory and what it implies for animal welfare funding. The discussion centered on why techno-economic analyses disagree, including media costs, bioreactor assumptions, gene-edited cell lines, and the gap between modeled costs and commercial reality.

Cultivated meat costs Techno-economic analysis Animal welfare funding

Plant-Based Substitution

In planning for 2026 · scheduling and async participation open

This workshop asks how much plant-based alternatives actually substitute for animal products, especially chicken. It will review scanner data, choice experiments, field experiments, and the broader substitution landscape that matters for animal welfare grantmaking.

Substitution effects Demand estimation Plant-based alternatives

The Process

1

Eliciting Questions

We collect questions from funders, practitioners, researchers, and public discussion. The first test is simple: what would someone do differently if they knew the answer?

2

Selecting & Refining

We rewrite broad questions into measurable claims, note the decision context, and look for the cruxes where evidence would most change beliefs.

3

Convening Workshops

When a question needs live synthesis, we convene focused workshops with researchers, evaluators, funders, and practitioners, with room for asynchronous input.

4

Linking Research

We curate relevant work, commission expert evaluations when needed, and connect the question to forecasts or belief elicitation where uncertainty remains large.

5

Publishing What We Learn

We share summaries, databases, recordings, evaluations, and open questions where appropriate, including caveats about what the discussion did not resolve.


Who Benefits?

Funders & Grantmakers

Clarify which empirical uncertainties matter for grantmaking, where existing evidence is thin, and which further research would be worth paying for.

Policymakers

Use concise evidence summaries and uncertainty ranges on questions that bear on policy choices, not only academic debates.

Researchers

See which questions practitioners actually need answered, and where a careful paper, replication, or evaluation could be unusually useful.

Implementing Organizations

Surface the assumptions behind program choices and get help turning them into questions that others can evaluate, forecast, or debate.

Browse Our Questions

We maintain a public database of pivotal questions, including draft formulations, related evidence, and current status. It is a working document, so some entries are more mature than others.

Public Database: View the Pivotal Questions database on Coda, or start with the workshop hub for the most active examples.

Have a Pivotal Question?

If your organization faces a decision that hinges on uncertain evidence, we want to hear from you. Submit your question for consideration.

Submit a Question Explore Workshops Learn More